Mountain Vista Wealth Management

Guiding from Valley to Peak

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Q2 2022 Investment Letter

INTRODUCTION

“Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.” -John Templeton

The contrast between market sentiment in 2021 and 2022 could not be more extreme.  According to the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, the spread between the percentage of “bullish” and “bearish” investors was +20 last year and was -38.9 this June.  Extremes in market sentiment are typically viewed as a contrarian indicator. High readings signal a fully invested buyer base and low readings suggest cash on the sidelines that will turn into future demand. [Read more…] about Q2 2022 Investment Letter

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Q1 2022 Investment Letter

INTRODUCTION

“Although the world is full of suffering, it is also full of overcoming it. ” -Helen Keller

Working in the financial markets is somewhat unique to other professions.  Our daily tasks are often impacted by trends and events that occur in unrelated sectors or locations thousands of miles away.  For this reason, we are sometimes forced to be knowledgeable in areas that extend far beyond the value of a security.  It is important to remain humble in these situations and to be skeptical of anyone that claims to have a crystal ball. [Read more…] about Q1 2022 Investment Letter

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Q4 2021 Investment Letter

INTRODUCTION

“Far more money has been lost by investors … trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves.” -Peter Lynch

As we turn the page on 2021, I cannot help but reflect on the events of the past year. In doing so, I am always reminded of how these events, in the moment, seem monumental, but ultimately fade away as we turn our attention to the next issue du jour. While the financial media experienced numerous panics throughout the year, the S&P 500 suffered no more than a 5% decline over the course of 2021, highlighting the importance of having a long-term view and looking through the short-term noise. [Read more…] about Q4 2021 Investment Letter

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Potential Tax Changes for Investment Properties


President Biden has a very ambitious economic, social and environment vision for the country. While it is not currently clear how much of his agenda will actually be signed as law, it is clear that revenue will need to be raised to fund these various projects.

Congress is still negotiating the details of how the additional revenue will be raised, but the two proposals we have seen provide some insight on what could make it to a final bill. The first insight is President Biden’s tax plan that was released just prior to the 2020 election and the second is the recent proposal from the House Ways and Means Committee, released in September 2021. [Read more…] about Potential Tax Changes for Investment Properties

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Q3 2021 Investment Letter

INTRODUCTION

“Building wealth is a marathon, not a sprint. Discipline is the key ingredient”
-Dave Ramsey

Equity market returns over the last decade have been remarkable and were well above long-term averages. Since its introduction in 1927, the S&P Composite/S&P 500 have compounded between 10-11% annually. Over the last 10 years, the index has returned 17%. These outsized returns have outpaced earnings growth, pushing the forward price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 north of 20x, a level not seen since the Dotcom boom in the early 2000s.

High valuations do not necessarily mean the market is going to crash. There are logical reasons for higher valuations, such as low interest rates, greater concentration of capital light tech businesses, no/low transaction costs and accessibility of data. That being said the margin for error has been reduced greatly. [Read more…] about Q3 2021 Investment Letter