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Oct 12 2026

Q3 2026 Investment Letter

INTRODUCTION

“The biggest investing errors come not from factors that are informational or analytical, but from those that are psychological.”
– Howard Marks

Every few quarters, I feel the need to remind everyone to check their emotions when it comes to the portfolio. It is easy to get caught up in the current zeitgeist, whether that be technological, political or just a popular narrative. The news, social media and conversations of friends reinforce a common way of thinking. When these channels reach saturation, it is usually a great time for a reversal of trend.

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Jul 10 2026

Q2 2026 Investment Letter

INTRODUCTION

“AI has the potential to be one of the greatest transformational technologies of all time…That’s not the same as saying AI Investments are on the bargain counter or even fairly priced.”
– Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital

Artificial intelligence is already having a profound impact on our markets and economy. But it will increasingly impact politics and various aspects of our day-to-day lives that we cannot yet imagine. Because of the transformative nature of the technology, speculation and volatility have increased in public and private markets. We have seen remarkable gains in stocks that touch the datacenter build out and promise transformative products yet to be built.

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Apr 09 2026

Q1 2026 Investment Letter

INTRODUCTION

“You can bomb the world into pieces, but you can’t bomb it into peace.”
– Michael Franti

War is always a tragedy, resulting in the loss of innocent lives and immeasurable suffering. In this letter we focus on the economic impacts of the war. We do not intend to downplay the human toll, but to focus on what we know best. We hope that a long-lasting, peaceful resolution is reached in an expeditious manner.

The economy entered 2026 with the wind at its back, and stock valuations reflected this positive backdrop. In our Q4 2025 letter, we instructed investors not to be complacent, extrapolating the strong returns of the prior two years forward. While we had no idea that the U.S. and Israel would attack Iran, we knew that a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 22-23 on the S&P 500 was historically high, leaving the market exposed to bad news.

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Jan 09 2026

Q4 2025 Investment Letter

INTRODUCTION

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.”

– Peter Lynch

Looking back at 2025, financial market investors have much to celebrate. Equities, fixed income, and gold have all delivered strong returns. Bitcoin and other crypto assets stand as the sole disappointment in what has otherwise been a remarkable period.

With hindsight, investing may appear straightforward. But it’s crucial to remember that capturing these gains required staying invested through April’s turbulence, when “Liberation Day” tariffs sent the S&P 500 plummeting 12% in a single week—nearly 20% from its peak.

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Oct 12 2025

Q3 2025 Investment Letter

INTRODUCTION

“October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.” – Mark Twain

Over the years, we’ve often discussed one of the most consistent challenges investors face: the difficulty of timing the market. Too often, investors buy near the highs when optimism is strongest and sell near the lows when fear is most intense. While the reasons are many, the root cause is usually human nature—our instincts are wired for survival, not successful investing.

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