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INTRODUCTION

“Most of the returns in stocks are concentrated in sharp bursts beginning in periods of great pessimism or fear… We believe time, not timing, is key to building wealth in the stock market.” -Bill Miller

This quarter was certainly a roller coaster ride for the stock market.  The S&P 500 climbed 14% through mid-August, before reversing course, eliminating all of those gains and then some.   This kind of volatility is enough to make even the strongest of stomachs a bit queasy.  That said, the experience of the last three months should be a reminder of a few valuable lessons. [Read more…] about Q3 2022 Investment Letter

INTRODUCTION

“Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.” -John Templeton

The contrast between market sentiment in 2021 and 2022 could not be more extreme.  According to the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, the spread between the percentage of “bullish” and “bearish” investors was +20 last year and was -38.9 this June.  Extremes in market sentiment are typically viewed as a contrarian indicator. High readings signal a fully invested buyer base and low readings suggest cash on the sidelines that will turn into future demand. [Read more…] about Q2 2022 Investment Letter

INTRODUCTION

“Although the world is full of suffering, it is also full of overcoming it. ” -Helen Keller

Working in the financial markets is somewhat unique to other professions.  Our daily tasks are often impacted by trends and events that occur in unrelated sectors or locations thousands of miles away.  For this reason, we are sometimes forced to be knowledgeable in areas that extend far beyond the value of a security.  It is important to remain humble in these situations and to be skeptical of anyone that claims to have a crystal ball. [Read more…] about Q1 2022 Investment Letter

INTRODUCTION

“Far more money has been lost by investors … trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves.” -Peter Lynch

As we turn the page on 2021, I cannot help but reflect on the events of the past year. In doing so, I am always reminded of how these events, in the moment, seem monumental, but ultimately fade away as we turn our attention to the next issue du jour. While the financial media experienced numerous panics throughout the year, the S&P 500 suffered no more than a 5% decline over the course of 2021, highlighting the importance of having a long-term view and looking through the short-term noise. [Read more…] about Q4 2021 Investment Letter